That means we can start projecting expectations — and stats — for this years batch of rookies.
Will anyone challenge Cam Ward in passing yards? How many rushing yards should we expect from early-round running backs such as Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton? Missed time due to injury is factored in, with running backs generally maxing out at 14 games and other positions at 15.
For full statistical outlooks, you can check out my projections page to sort and filter through the entire league. Twenty-three 49% started in Week 1, including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix last season. But we still had four selected in the first round and 10 more on Day 2.
As top-10 picks, both Hunter No. This provides optimism that McMillan can reach 900 yards as a rookie, assuming quarterback Bryce Young sustains his improved play from late last season. Since 2011, there are 148 receivers who fit that bill and played at least one snap as a rookie. This is something to keep in mind when considering the upside of all the Rounds 1 and 2 wide receivers.
First-round tight ends Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren are notable omissions from this list, but theres good reason. Also, Loveland will have to compete for targets with Moore, Odunze, fellow rookie Luther Burden III and Cole Kmet. Warren will need to overcome the Colts potentially low-volume passing game with either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones under center.
Rushing yards and touchdowns
1. All four players did it in fewer than 17 games, too.
Reaching 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie isnt easy, but eight first-round RBs have had 225-plus carries in their first season since 2011 — Jeanty should eclipse that number even if he misses a few games. Those eight backs all reached 950 rushing yards, averaging 1,230 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.
play 1:05 Chargers GM to McAfee: Omarion Hampton was a player we couldnt pass on Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz talks with Pat McAfee about the decision to draft Omarion Hampton in the first round.
Hamptons outlook is not as rosy as Jeantys, but its still pretty strong. Hampton will need to fend off newly acquired Harris for work, but the No. Fourteen of them reached six rushing touchdowns.
If this rookie running back class really is special, then we should expect more output from later picks. Sixteen of those players were running backs, so it should be no surprise to see six backs on this list for 2025.
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The aforementioned past four backs selected in the top seven Barkley, Richardson, Elliott and Fournette all produced at least 10 touchdowns as a rookie. So Jeanty reaching double-digit TDs would be on par with the historical production — but I dont expect him to reach that mark. Los Angeles will likely score more rushing touchdowns, too.
The lack of wide receivers might seem confusing, but only 15 rookie WRs reached eight TDs in their first season over the past decade. While Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Jalen McMillan and Marvin Harrison Jr. met that mark in 2024, only four did from 2021 to 2023.
Tackles
1. He has to battle Zack Baun — and Nakobe Dean, once hes back from a knee injury — for snaps. 20 pick, will immediately battle Riley Moss to start opposite Pat Surtain II in Denver. First-year players totaled a weak 84.5 sacks in 2024.
In fact, Rams defensive tackle Braden Fiske led all first-years with 8.5 sacks last season, but only three others reached 5.0 Miamis Chop Robinson and Denvers duo of Dondrea Tillman and Jonah Elliss. 3 pick, might eventually emerge as one of the leagues best defenders, but he will likely begin his career in a rotation with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. 56 Stephen A. Smith gets fired up over Giants draft pick Abdul Carter asking to wear Lawrence Taylors retired No. Malachi Moore, S, New York Jets: 1
These always seem super low, and thats not by accident. But in four of the past six seasons, rookies combined for fewer than 40 INTs.
Whats more surprising is that first-round rookies combined for only two interceptions last season — the lowest total in well over a decade.
